Unprecedented Extreme Fire Alert Poses Danger to Southern California for Next Two Days

Firefighters continued to boost containment overnight of the Palisades and Eaton fires ahead of dangerous winds that began blowing through the region early Tuesday.

Officials are concerned the strong winds paired with dry fuel and low humidity could result in new fire starts in Southern California or the expansion of the existing blazes. The Palisades fire had burned more than 23,700 acres and was 17% contained as of Tuesday. The Eaton fire, which has carved a devastating path through Altadena, has burned just over 14,100 acres and was 35% contained, according to the Los Angeles County Fire Department.

An unprecedented fourth “particularly dangerous situation” fire weather warning took effect Tuesday morning and is expected to last through Wednesday affecting swaths of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. The National Weather Service reserves the designation for signifying an extreme red flag warning, when especially hazardous fire weather conditions are expected.

Gusts of up to 72 mph had already hit the San Gabriel Mountains early Tuesday.

“Life-threatening and destructive and widespread winds are already here,” Los Angeles Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said during a news conference Tuesday. “We are taking an aggressive, lean forward posture … strategically placing fire patrols and engines in the unimpacted high fire risk areas in the city. We are carefully managing our operations to ensure that we can quickly respond to any new fires.”

Crowley said that crews had made extensive preparations for the latest extreme weather event reinforcing fire control lines around the Eaton and Palisades fires, clearing dry brush from surviving structures, and staging resources in areas where new fires could ignite. The Governor’s Office of Emergency Services has also pre-positioned additional engines, fire crews, helicopters, bulldozers and water tenders across Southern California.

Authorities hope to be able to keep firefighting aircraft up Tuesday, but it’s unclear how much the conditions will allow.

Battalion Chief Brett Willis said air support in Los Angeles County remained ready and able to fly, if needed. One helicopter was out Tuesday morning doing reconnaissance.

However, winds had already clocked in at higher and dangerous speeds in Camarillo, he said, where officials decided to move some helicopters and fixed-wing planes that had been stationed there, relocating them south and east so they could be able to fly if needed.

The Palisades and Eaton fires are among the deadliest in California’s modern history. Officials confirmed the number of deaths at 24, but warn the death toll is likely to keep rising.

There are also still 37 missing persons reports across both fires, officials said. Two individuals who have been reported missing “have most likely been found deceased” but authorities have not positively identified them, LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell said.

Although there is no final tally yet of structures burned, the fires are already among the most destructive the state has experienced.

Damage assessments have confirmed 2,722 structures destroyed in the Eaton fire, though inspection teams are still combing through the fire footprint, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Officials estimate that 7,000 structures were damaged or destroyed, though structures can include homes, businesses, smaller outbuildings and sheds and even vehicles. Officials estimate the Palisades fire has burned more than 5,300 structures.

Winds hitting the region over the next two days will be more of a conventional Santa Ana event, forecasters say, with gusts coming out of the east and spreading fires to the west. That means the winds will have more of a focus on Ventura County compared with those last week, which came generally out of the north and hit Los Angeles County hard.

Areas covered by the latest alert include Camarillo, Fillmore, Northridge, Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks. A conventional red flag warning — for a combination of strong winds, dry air and vegetation, and expected severe wildfire behavior if ignition occurs — is in effect across the region, including large portions of L.A., San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties, as well as some mountainous areas of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.

Southern California Edison implemented a public safety power shutoff for more than 58,600 customers across its service area on Tuesday as the winds started to increase. Such shutoffs are aimed at mitigating threats, often in areas where the utility’s equipment could be at high risk of sparking a wildfire.

Of those without power, more than 22,000 customers live in Los Angeles County and roughly 17,800 are in Ventura County. Another 120,000 customers in Los Angeles County and 86,000 customers in Ventura County could have their power shut off at some point during the wind event, the utility said Tuesday.

About 17,000 Los Angeles Department of Water and Power customers in Pacific Palisades, Encino and Brentwood remain without power on Tuesday, according to the utility.

Los Angeles County’s wireless emergency alerts are still seeing some lingering issues after millions in L.A. County incorrectly received the panic-inducing messages on their cell phones last week.

Even though the county Office of Emergency Management says it is now prepared to send any new alerts after overhauling its system, some incorrect alerts continued to show up on phones Monday, days after the evacuation warning was warranted and far from the intended geographic area.

“We have received reports that some individuals are still receiving alerts,” the county’s Office of Emergency Management said in a statement late Monday. “We believe these to be ‘echo alerts.’ Echo alerts were found to be the result of messages being relayed through cell phone towers that were shut down during fire conditions and power outages and are now coming back online.”

It wasn’t immediately clear how widespread the issue was Monday, but officials said they are prepared to send out new alerts during the ongoing wind event this week, if warranted.

Officials urged Angelenos to be on alert for new wildfires and prepare to evacuate if needed.

“While peak winds are not expected to be as strong as last week’s wind event, they still pose a tremendous threat. If you’re asked to evacuate, please listen to all evacuation orders as they’re meant as a lifesaving measure,” McDonnell said.

As winds began to increase overnight, firefighters in Oxnard rushed to a brush fire that broke out in the Santa Clara River bottom near North Ventura Boulevard. The Auto fire, fanned by wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph, quickly grew to about 55 acres. The fire department after midnight said forward progress on the Auto fire has been stopped, but firefighters were still on scene.

As firefighters grapple with extreme fire conditions, residents who have lost homes in the Palisades and Eaton fires are wrestling with the overwhelming idea of rebuilding their properties. Many have not been able to return home since the fires began.

On Monday, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass issued an executive order that seeks to expedite rebuilding efforts, mostly within Pacific Palisades. Bass’ move comes one day after Gov. Gavin Newsom, via his own executive order, waived regulations under state environmental laws in an effort to speed up rebuilding in the Palisades, as well as Altadena and other areas outside the city.

“This order clears away red tape and bureaucracy to organize around urgency, common sense and compassion. We will do everything we can to get Angelenos back home,” Bass said in a statement.

The National Weather Service’s “particularly dangerous situation” tag in effect over the next two days has traditionally been used only rarely, when forecasters believed long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes were possible. The National Weather Service office in Oxnard, which covers L.A., Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, adopted it in 2020 in hopes of clearly ringing the alarm bell for the most extreme fire weather conditions.

“Any kind of red flag warning is dangerous. But there’s a gradient even within that range of situations, and so we wanted a way to message the extreme of the extremes. And the PDS is what came from that,” said weather service meteorologist Ryan Kittell.

During each of the three warnings issued this season, destructive wildfires erupted: the 19,904-acre Mountain fire in Ventura County, which razed more than 240 buildings; the 4,037-acre Franklin fire, which spread rapidly in Malibu and destroyed 20 buildings in December; and last week’s Palisades and Eaton fires, which now rank among the deadliest and most destructive in modern California history.

Tuesday’s gusty winds mark the fourth Santa Ana wind event since last week’s catastrophic firestorms, according to weather service estimates.

While conditions are expected to improve Wednesday night, relief could be brief. There are signs that another Santa Ana wind event could materialize Sunday and Monday, including a 30% to 40% chance of red flag warnings returning for L.A. and Ventura counties.

The extreme fire weather is also being fed by extraordinarily dry conditions. The last significant rain in downtown Los Angeles was on May 5, when 0.13 of an inch of rain fell. Since Oct. 1, only 0.16 of an inch of rain has fallen there — a drop in the bucket compared with the historical average of 5.34 inches that should have fallen by this point in the season.

The last time there has been so little rain between early May and the end of December was 1962, where downtown L.A. got only 0.14 of an inch, according to the weather service.

“In my view,” said retired climatologist Bill Patzert, “the past nine months has been one of the driest in the historical record going back to 1900. During my career, I’ve never seen punishing Santa Ana events so overwhelm the normal winter rain season.”