MOSCOW (CONVERSEER) – The rise of Russia’s pro-BRI policymaking faction, intense Pakistani diplomacy, and Russia’s interests with the US vis-à-vis Ukraine arguably account for what just surprisingly happened.
Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov, who’s one of Putin’s closest friends and most trusted advisors, lent credence to Trump’s claim that he personally stopped the latest Indo-Pak conflict when briefing reporters about what Putin and Trump discussed during their most recent call. In his words, “Additionally, the Middle East was discussed, as well as the armed conflict between India and Pakistan, which has been halted with the personal involvement of President Trump.”
India has repeatedly denied that Trump stopped the conflict and instead maintained that it was a purely bilateral decision brought about at Pakistan’s insistence. Trump’s continued claims to the contrary have eroded India’s trust in his government and raised concerns about his intentions. Some fear that he’s working against their country’s interests as part of a plot to reshape South Asian geopolitics in the US’ favor. That explains, in their minds at least, why he’s undermining India at this very sensitive moment.
Russia’s neutrality towards the latest conflict and recent statements from its officials have also raised eyebrows. Russia and India formally describe their relations as a special and privileged strategic partnership, yet the growing influence of the Kremlin’s pro-BRI policymaking faction has led to speculation that their ties might change. This group favors China and its Pakistani ally over India, unlike their balancing/pragmatist rivals, who are Indophiles. Here are some background briefings about all this:
- 14 May: “There Might Be A Method To The Madness Of Trump Unexpectedly Damaging Indo-US Ties”
- 16 May: “Trump’s Desired Return To Bagram Airbase Could Reshape South Asian Geopolitics”
- 18 May: “Russia’s Neutrality During The Latest Indo-Pak Conflict Was Due To New Policymaking Dynamics”
- 4 June: “Russian Policymakers’ Perception Of India Might Be Changing”
- 7 June “The US Is Once Again Trying To Subordinate India”
Russia hitherto hadn’t commented on Trump’s boast that prompted repeated denials from India. Three recent developments, however, likely account for why it finally opined on this and supported his claim. The first concerns the recent visit of Pakistani Senator Mushahid Hussain to Russia at the invitation of his host’s Foreign Ministry and ruling party to attend a multilateral security event. He met with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and afterwards praised him for Russia’s neutrality towards the latest conflict.
According to him, “there’s a newfound respect and liking for Pakistan in the Russian political establishment”, due in part to “Russian disillusionment with India”. Special Assistant to the Pakistani Prime Minister Syed Tariq Fatemi followed in his footsteps shortly thereafter. He met with Lavrov, Ushakov, co-chair of the intergovernmental committee Sergey Tsivilev, and the Valdai Club, and he gave interviews to Sputnik and RT too. This coincided with the Russian-Ukrainian talks reaching an impasse.
Accordingly, Putin might be inclined to curry favor with Trump in the hope of him coercing Ukraine into concessions, thus explaining why Ushakov lent credence to Trump’s Indo-Pak claims. Taken together, the rise of Russia’s pro-BRI policymaking faction, intense Pakistani diplomacy, and Russia’s interests with the US vis-à-vis Ukraine arguably account for what just surprisingly happened. A flurry of Indian diplomacy is therefore expected with the goal of seeking clarification and getting Russia to recalibrate its position.