On Sydney’s urban fringe, a perfect storm of living cost and geopolitical pressures is brewing for Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the electoral chances of his center-left Labor government.
Maria Markovic, 50, sees renewable energy as driving up prices, and wants politicians to “make Australia great again and affordable”.
Her home in western Sydney is “packed to the rafters” with three adult children she says can’t afford to move out because of home rental costs.
“We both have steady jobs, but are we living the same way we did a few years ago? Absolutely not,” said the IT professional, shopping with her husband in Casula.
Labor is forecast to lose working-class seats in the outer suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne in a May 3 national election, resulting in a hung parliament, as a narrow contest with Peter Dutton’s conservative Liberal and National coalition gets under way, according to YouGov polling of 40,000 people in March.
As with the 2024 U.S. election loss by the Democrats, housing and living costs top voter concerns, according to multiple polls that show a neck-and-neck race.
The pursuit of the “Great Australian Dream” of home ownership is hurting families saddled with high mortgage payments, as Australia’s Reserve Bank had raised interest rates 13 times since 2022 before last month’s rate cut.
In the most stark example of how housing pain could determine the election, the YouGov poll predicted the seat of Werriwa, a 45-minute train journey west of Sydney – held by Labor for 90 years – would be lost.
Within Werriwa’s electoral boundaries, the suburbs of Casula and Liverpool are experiencing Australia’s worst rates of residential mortgage and rental housing distress, data shows.
“If somebody has a mortgage, there’s not much left,” said Bill Regan, 60, who said he sees people queuing for food from charities in Liverpool. “Are people angry enough to make a change? How far does loyalty to the Labor party go?”
Dani Wilson, 40, said she is pooling food with other families to reduce costs amid soaring mortgage payments.
“People are very open for change at the moment. It has been hurting,” Wilson said at a Casula farmers market, where a tray of eggs is cheaper than at the supermarket.
The western suburbs have the highest proportion of households with a mortgage across Sydney, so housing will be pivotal to voters there, said Tom Nance, policy and advocacy lead with the Centre for Western Sydney, a think tank.
“A lot of people are seeing their chance of grabbing hold of the Great Australian Dream recede into the distance. This is a turning point for a lot of people – they are looking at which party can save that,” he said.
Labor said it would ban foreign investors from buying existing homes for two years, matching a Liberal-National pledge, and help first-time buyers, but other policies to boost housing supply including more rental and social housing, will take longer to make an impact.
“People have lost the dream of home ownership and I am going to restore it,” said Dutton, who plans to introduce a “Lower Immigration and More Homes for Australians Bill” if he wins.
Offering faster relief for household budgets, Albanese has promised energy bill rebates, tax cuts and pledged A$8.5 billion ($5.38 billion) to make most doctor visits free – the centrepiece of Labor’s election campaign.
Dutton has matched the health policy, and said if elected prime minister he would lower energy prices, and make petrol cheaper by cutting the fuel excise tax.
In Liverpool, Charles Ekwueme and his family have to move out of the home they have rented for four years, after their landlord could no longer afford the mortgage and reduced living costs by moving in himself.
Ekwueme looked over a new townhouse in Casula with no yard, constructed under a government build-to-lease policy that seeks to fill a rental housing shortfall by offering tax incentives to property developers.
A migrant from Nigeria, he was dismayed at the $750 weekly rent, and no space for children to play. Casula’s median rent was $450 in 2021, census data shows.
“I have a full-time job and a part-time job. I am working from Sunday to Sunday around the clock just to make sure I can keep up with this. This is pressure,” he said.
Dutton took his election campaign on Sunday to a mosque in Liverpool.
One in five Casula residents are Muslim, with Australian, English and Lebanese the top three ancestries cited in Census data.
Concern over Gaza and U.S. President Donald Trump could also affect voting here, several Muslim residents in Casula said.
“Growing up, all the communities here would vote more for Labor and I think that is starting to shift because of the decisions they are making about foreign policy,” said health worker Madula Ayoubi, 29. “People are starting to shift towards the independents.”
A dozen independents in parliament are predicted to emerge as kingmakers in 2025, holding their seats and determining who can form a government, as Dutton and Albanese’s fight goes down to the line.
© Thomson Reuters 2025.
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