OPINION … The Ticking Time Bomb: The almajiri generation

Why Nigeria’s 20 Million Out-of-School Children Threaten Us All

When suspected bandits ambushed former Benue Secretary to the State Government, Professor David Salifu, on the Wukari–Joota Road last Thursday, they did not ask for his CV.

They did not care that he was a Professor of Public Administration, a former Dean, or that colleagues remembered him for “uncommon diligence and integrity.”
They stopped his car, dragged him out, and when he demanded to know what they wanted, one shot him in the stomach at close range. Rushed first to Wukari, then to the Federal Medical Centre in Makurdi, he died in the early hours of Friday.

Professor Salifu was traveling for a family burial. No convoy. No political rally. Just an academic and public servant on a federal highway in broad daylight. His death is not an isolated tragedy. It is a warning.

The Scale of Abandonment

Nigeria now holds the world’s largest population of out-of-school children: over 20 million, according to UNESCO. This is not a line item for a donor report. It is a generational crisis in motion.

UNICEF says 10.2 million children of primary age and 8.1 million at junior secondary level are out of school. One in every five out-of-school children globally is Nigerian. Nigeria accounts for 15% of the world total.

For context, compare India. With nearly 7 times Nigeria’s population, India has about 1.17 million children out of school as of 2025, and is targeting 100% enrolment by 2030. Nigeria, with 220 million people, has more than 18 million out. The gap is not just alarming. It is obscene.

Where the Crisis Lives

The burden is concentrated in the North. Between 73% and 80% of Nigeria’s out-of-school children are in northern states. In the North-West and North-East, only 30% of school-age children are in formal classrooms.

The Northern States Governors’ Forum admits 80% of the 18.3 million figure comes from the region. Three states — Kano, Katsina and Jigawa — account for 16% of the national total. Kano alone has close to 900,000 children out of school.

At the center of this is the Almajiri system. Governor Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa calls it “the single largest structural contributor.” Data shows Almajiri children make up 72% to 81% of Nigeria’s out-of-school population. Roughly 9.5 million boys sent to study the Qur’an but often left to beg now form the bulk of the crisis.

The 100+ Almajiri schools built under President Goodluck Jonathan have largely been abandoned. This is not a resource problem. It is a failure of political will.

From Classroom to Battlefield

The link to insecurity is direct and self-reinforcing. The Northern Governors’ Forum lists poverty, unemployment and out-of-school children as key drivers of violence.

Governor Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya was blunt: “In a country where 60% of the population is below 35, a hungry, jobless and illiterate youth population is nothing more than a cheap recruitment pool for bandits and Boko Haram.”

Banditry has forced dozens of schools to close in Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto and Kaduna. Insurgency continues to displace students in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa. Insecurity keeps children out of school. Out-of-school children become recruits. More violence follows.

The Yargote Foundation warns 7.4 million Nigerian boys are out of school, and 78% of boys aged 7-14 cannot read or do basic math. Only 3-4% have foundational skills. “A boy without guidance becomes a man without direction, and society pays the highest price,” the founder said.

That is what we saw on the Wukari–Joota Road. The men who killed Professor Salifu did not need ideology. They needed opportunity, guns, motorcycles, and recruits with nothing to lose.

Misplaced Priorities

Government response so far has been announcements, not outcomes. Abuja says it will return 15 million children to school. Yet 12.4 million have never entered a classroom, and 5.9 million dropped out early.

Between January 2025 and January 2026, states drew down ₦106 billion in UBEC matching grants. ₦22 billion went to train 978,000 teachers. 10,000 classrooms were renovated. But in many northern states, only 53% of teachers are qualified, and ratios reach 1 teacher to 100 pupils.

Worse, money is being diverted. In Zamfara, despite budgeting ₦79.6 billion for education in 2025 and ₦51.3 billion in 2024, pupils at Gada Biyu Model Primary School sit on bare concrete. MonITNG called it “misplaced priorities,” pointing to funds spent on foreign trips and hospitality, including a disputed claim of over ₦400 million.

Across the North the pattern holds. In nine months, 14 northern states withdrew ₦56 billion as security votes. Kano budgeted ₦2.5 billion for mass weddings but only ₦955 million to count out-of-school children. Katsina set aside ₦4.58 billion for pilgrimage and ₦2.3 billion for Ramadan feeding. Pilgrimages and politics are being funded. Classrooms are not.

UBEC Executive Secretary Dr. Aisha Garba calls it a “crisis of great magnitude.” The new $552 million HOPE-EDU programme with the World Bank is welcome. It is also a drop in the ocean.

The Way Out

What is needed is a reset. Northern leaders must own the fact that 80% of the problem sits in their region. That means compulsory, free basic education, and phasing out the Almajiri system with credible alternatives, as Governor Sule has proposed.

The Federal Government must declare a national education emergency focused on the North, enforce Minimum Standards for Safe Schools, and tie funding to results. Nigeria needs a Teacher Workforce Rebuild of at least 150,000 new teachers with priority deployment to the North. And all stakeholders must sign a Northern Basic Education Compact with clear targets.

Nigeria’s founders understood that human capital is the true resource. Today we are surrendering it. The girl who should be in class is hawking on the street or married off early. Every child denied education becomes a cost to society tomorrow.

A Nation at Risk

Let us be direct. Nigeria is sleepwalking into a disaster. The 20 million out-of-school children are not a statistic. They are a ticking time bomb. When it detonates, no gated estate in Lagos, Abuja, or Makurdi will be immune.

Professor Salifu will not be the last educated Nigerian killed by the consequences of neglect. If we do not act now — with real classrooms, real teachers, and real enforcement — we are not just failing our children. We are building our own destruction.

The bomb is ticking. And it is already on the highway.

By: Allen Durueke