After all the costs borne by UK and EU farmers in the last year or so, the EU forces the UK to swallow another cost hike via the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
The NFU has warned the levy could immediately add up to £70 per tonne to costs. Modelling by the Agricultural Industries Confederation (AIC) projects an actual cost impact of less than £10 per tonne,
PETER HALLIGAN
£10 a tonne if you get the 80% reduction- but note:”
Free allowances are expected to be phased out completely by 2034, at which point CBAM will apply at its full rate.” Typical backsliding and bureaucratic negotiation tactics.
Here’s the set-up for this UK attack on farmers and inflationary spike caused by EU bureaucracy. The UK Marxist Labour government loves this price gouging that makes everyone worse off and short of food.
Remember this article from a few years ago?
EU rewrites every trade deal it has with the entire world via its new compliance directive
““On 25 July 2024, the Directive on corporate sustainability due diligence (Directive 2024/1760) entered into force. The aim of this Directive is to foster sustainable and responsible corporate behaviour in companies’ operations and across their global value chains. The new rules will ensure that companies in scope identify and address adverse human rights and environmental impacts of their actions inside and outside Europe.”
Note the term “global value chains”. This means from raw material (metal ore, crops or fossil fuel source etc) all the way through refining and other processing steps that constitute “work in progress” through to the finished product – FROM ALL SOURCES ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD.
Well- fertilizer is part of global vlue chains and needs to be ‘equalized.
How much will it cost?
From Brave AI:
“The UK produces approximately 40% of its nitrogen fertilizer domestically, while relying on imports for the remaining 60%. For other critical nutrients, the UK is heavily dependent on foreign sources, with phosphorus sourced almost entirely from Morocco and Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara, and potash primarily imported from Israel, Spain, and Germany.
Nitrogen-based fertilizers (such as ammonium nitrate, urea, and UAN) are imported from a diversified global supply chain. Key suppliers for ammonium nitrate include Lithuania and Poland, which together account for the vast majority of UK imports. Urea imports have shifted significantly in recent years; following sanctions and reduced supply from Russia, Egypt has become a major supplier, with Morocco also playing a significant role. Other notable nitrogen import origins include the Netherlands, Norway, and increasingly the United States and Trinidad and Tobago for UAN products.
Phosphate fertilizers are derived from phosphate rock mined in Morocco, as the UK has no domestic source. This dependency creates vulnerability to global supply disruptions and price spikes. Potash imports remain relatively stable, sourced mainly from Israel, Spain, and Germany. The UK’s reliance on imported natural gas for nitrogen production also links its fertilizer costs and security to global energy markets, particularly those in Europe.
“Fertilizer costs in the UK vary significantly by type, ranging from £342–£460 per tonne for standard nitrogen fertilizers to £789 per tonne for Diammonium Phosphate (DAP). As of mid-2026, prices have stabilized compared to the historic peaks of 2022 but remain approximately 50% higher than pre-crisis 2020 levels.
Bulk Agricultural Fertilizer Prices (per tonne)
- Ammonium Nitrate (AN): UK-produced is approximately £460–£462/tonne, while imported AN is similar at £461–£462/tonne.
- Granular Urea: Prices have risen recently to around £484–£497/tonne in mid-2026, up from lower levels in 2024.
- Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): Remains expensive at approximately £789–£793/tonne.
- Muriate of Potash (MOP): Priced at roughly £372–£373/tonne.
- Triple Super Phosphate (TSP): Costs approximately £623–£632/tonne.
Specifically:
“The UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on fertilizers is scheduled to commence on 1 January 2027. There is a significant divergence in projected costs between industry warnings and government estimates.
Industry Estimates Various agricultural bodies and fertiliser manufacturers predict a substantial increase in costs:
- Nitrasol and other industry leaders estimate the tax could add £50–£75 per tonne to nitrogen fertilisers, representing a 20–25% price increase.
- Academic research suggests that combined with the phase-out of free allowances, mineral fertiliser prices could double.
- The NFU has warned the levy could immediately add up to £70 per tonne to costs.
Government and Alternative Modelling
- The UK Government states that initial liabilities will be relatively low due to existing free-allowance surpluses held by UK fertiliser manufacturers.
- Modelling by the Agricultural Industries Confederation (AIC) projects an actual cost impact of less than £10 per tonne, assuming an 80% free allowance retention.
- Consultancy firm Andersons estimates a cost closer to £23–£24 per tonne on urea, based on a nominal carbon price of £35/t.
The final rate will be determined quarterly based on the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) carbon price, adjusted for free allocations. Free allowances are expected to be phased out completely by 2034, at which point CBAM will apply at its full rate.
You can detect th bureaucratic hand in the EU directive – not one person will have ever worked on a farm.
It’s not just the UK that is being penalised by CBAM – everyone in the EU is also.
Note the last sentence in this quote from Brave AI: “Despite the industry backlash, the European Commission maintains that CBAM is not being cancelled for any sector.” Surprised?
“European industry is actively protesting against the European Commission’s proposal to weaken the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by introducing a discretionary exemption clause, known as Article 27a or the “kill-switch.”
Manufacturers from the fertilizer, steel, cement, aluminum, and hydrogen sectors argue that this vague provision creates legal uncertainty, undermines investment in decarbonization, and threatens the “level playing field” necessary for their survival.
Key aspects of the protest include:
- Fear of Political Interference: Industry groups warn that the Commission’s power to suspend CBAM obligations during “unforeseen circumstances” is so broad it could be used to exempt politically sensitive goods, effectively nullifying the mechanism’s climate goals.
- Impact on Investment: Producers argue that the mere possibility of exemptions destroys the business case for low-carbon production, as investors require predictable carbon pricing to justify the high costs of green technology.
- Specific Concerns: The fertilizer sector is leading the charge, with 12 EU governments already campaigning for an exemption due to rising costs, while groups like Eurofer and Hydrogen Europe describe the clause as a “Sword of Damocles” that could trigger a domino effect of further exemptions.
- Political Support: The protest has found sympathy in the European Parliament, where MEPs from across the political spectrum have criticized the Commission’s approach, with some moving to vote to fully eliminate the controversial Article 27a.
Despite the industry backlash, the European Commission maintains that CBAM is not being cancelled for any sector and asserts its commitment to providing regulatory certainty, though it faces pressure to clarify or remove the exemption power to satisfy te partners and domestic producers.
Brave AI HAS BEEN INFILTRATED BY CLIMATE FREAKERY CAUSNG the creation of ‘word salad and unreferenced double negatives plus A DISTINCT BIAS towards ‘net zero’ in its commentary- so watch out!
I Suggest another AI source for research- as an AI Border adjustment mechanism (AIBM) try finding any LLM that tells the truth about climate change and translates directives like the CBAM into plain English – even US AI has been captured by the climate change SCAM.
There is no climate crisis – only weather!!!.
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See Related Article Below
Green tax to hit British farmers
Calls to halt fertiliser levy as drought piles pressure on industry
NICK GUTTERIDGE
Farmers face a doubling of fertiliser prices when a net zero border tax is introduced in January, research suggests.
Labour wants to introduce a green levy on imports that will mirror measures brought in earlier this year by the European Union.
Farmers have warned the move will have a devastating impact on the industry as they face the worst harvest on record as a result of the summer drought.
The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) is also warning the changes could push up food prices and wants the Government to delay its introduction.
Fertiliser prices have risen by as much as 45 per cent since the war in Iran disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Ministers plan to introduce a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) from Jan 1 2027, which will impose a tariff on certain imported goods, including fertiliser.
Academic research published in the Journal of Agricultural Economics found that similar measures could double fertiliser prices and reduce farmers’ incomes by up to 8 per cent.
“Higher prices are projected to reduce demand, leading to a 21.4 per cent decline in domestic production and a 37 per cent reduction in imports,” it warned.
“The results indicate that the combined effect of phasing out free allowances and implementing CBAM will double mineral fertiliser prices.”
The findings have raised concerns for British farmers, who rely heavily on nitrogen-based fertilisers, although the Government has said it expects the initial impact of the UK scheme to be modest.
When the CBAM is introduced, farming businesses will initially have “free allowances” for the amount of fertiliser they can import without paying extra charges.
But, as in the EU, those allowances are set to be phased out over the next decade, meaning that by the mid-2030s all imports will be subject to the levy.
The higher costs, which are also blamed for a surge in food prices for consumers, come on top of plans by Labour to mirror many of Brussels’s environmental policies as part of its Brexit reset, which farmers fear will also add to their burden.
The deal, awaiting Andy Burnham’s approval, would link the UK’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) to the EU’s.
The NFU has warned the new levy will immediately add up to £70 a ton to the cost of fertiliser “at a time of huge inflationary pressure”.
According to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, imported ammonium nitrate – a commonly used fertiliser in the UK – is trading at £462 per ton.
In a joint statement issued last year, 12 European food associations warned the EU’s carbon tax would raise fertiliser prices by up to 30 per cent.
Such an increase on the Continent would directly hit British farmers, who import large quantities of fertiliser from Europe.
[…]
Claire Coutinho, the shadow energy secretary, said: “Farmers work day and night and in all weathers to put food on our plates. They have no choice but to buy fertiliser, yet experts say the fertiliser tax will increase prices by as much as 25 per cent.
“It is unthinkable that the Labour Government are going to burden farmers with yet another tax after all they have been through.
The Telegraph: continue reading
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