China’s population has continued to decline for the third consecutive year in 2024, with the number of deaths surpassing the slight increase in births.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s total population fell by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion, down from 1.409 billion in 2023. This marks another year of worrying demographic trends, with experts warning that the decline will accelerate in the years to come.
The latest data underscores concerns about the long-term challenges facing the world’s second-largest economy. As the working-age population shrinks, there are increasing pressures from rising elderly care costs and pension liabilities, which are expected to strain already heavily indebted local governments.
China recorded 9.54 million births in 2024, up slightly from 9.02 million in 2023, marking a rise in the birth rate to 6.77 births per 1,000 people, compared to 6.39 per 1,000 the previous year. However, the number of deaths also decreased to 10.93 million in 2024 from 11.1 million in 2023, highlighting the ongoing demographic challenges.
The country’s declining birth rates have been a long-standing issue, exacerbated by the one-child policy, which was in effect from 1980 to 2015, and rapid urbanization. Much like neighbouring Japan and South Korea, many Chinese people have moved from rural farms to cities, where the high cost of living makes having children more financially burdensome.
Further contributing to the population decline, young people face job insecurity and a slowing economy, leading to delays in marriage and family formation. Additionally, gender discrimination and traditional expectations for women to prioritize domestic duties have intensified the issue, according to demographers.
“Much of China’s population decline is rooted in entrenched structural reasons: Without fundamental structural transformations – from enhancing the social safety net to eliminating gender discrimination – the trend of population decline cannot be reversed,” said Yun Zhou, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan.
A temporary boost in births was seen in 2024, following a 12.4% rise in marriages in 2023, which had been delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, demographers predict that birth rates will likely decline again in 2025, as marriages are closely linked to childbirth in China, where many single women have limited access to child-raising benefits.
In response to the demographic crisis, Chinese authorities have introduced measures to encourage higher birth rates. In December 2024, they urged universities to incorporate “marriage and love education” into their curricula to promote positive views on marriage, love, fertility, and family. The state council has also rallied local governments to invest in initiatives to address the population crisis and encourage childbearing at the “right age.”
The challenges ahead are stark, with the number of women of reproductive age expected to fall by more than two-thirds, dropping below 100 million by the end of the century. Meanwhile, the population aged 60 and over is projected to grow to more than 400 million by 2035, up from around 280 million today, placing additional strain on the pension system. The Chinese Academy of Sciences has warned that the country’s pension system may run out of funds by 2035.
In 2024, about 22% of China’s population, or 310.31 million people, were aged 60 or older, an increase from 296.97 million in 2023. Urbanization continued at a rapid pace, with the urban population rising by 10.83 million to 943.3 million, while the rural population fell to 464.78 million.
