Analysing the true cost of relegation facing Tottenham, West Ham & Nottingham Forest exclusively for Grosvenor Casino, Football Finance Expert Dr Dan Plumpey provided insights into:
- The loss of broadcasting revenue from the Premier League, UEFA and break clauses in commercial agreements could cost Spurs over £200m if they’re relegated.
- However, the clubs wage structure (45% of revenue), which Daniel Levy was previously criticised for, means that “they are better placed than others to withstand the hit”.
- But despite this, Spurs’ wage bill (£255.8m) is 7x that of the average in the Championship (£36.6m).
- West Ham (76%) and Nottingham Forest (75.5%) have significantly higher wage to revenue ratios, which would likely result in a player fire sale.
- Already relegated, Wolves are the club to be hit the hardest by relegation, with their wage to revenue ratio almost 95%.
With the clock ticking for clubs embroiled in the Premier League’s battle for survival, football finance expert and lecturer at Sheffield Hallam University, Dr Dan Plumley, has revealed how financially damaging relegation to the Championship could be for one of Tottenham, West Ham, Nottingham Forest or Leeds.
Dan Plumley: “Relegation for Tottenham would be catastrophic.”
“Their revenue line in 2025 was £565.3m. £161.7m of that was from broadcasting, including UEFA distribution linked to European competition. It is highly likely that some commercial deals will have break or release clauses in them based on sporting performance and you would anticipate a drop in matchday revenue also so the true cost of relegation for Spurs might be north of £200m. That said, their wage bill has always been run on a tight budget considering their revenue and while relegation would put some acute pressure on that figure, they are better placed than others to withstand the hit. In 2025, their wage bill totalled £255.8m (45% of revenue).”
“This would have to come down in the Championship, of course, and there would likely be a fire sale of some key players, but there is scope to tackle the wage bill if the worst-case scenario occurs. By comparison, the average wage bill in the Championship for 2025 (with three clubs yet to file accounts) is £36.6m which is almost seven times less than the total of Spurs alone. Put simply, Spurs should not be getting relegated. It would arguably be more of a sporting shock than Leicester City winning the Premier League in 2016.”
“The other clubs in the bottom six are not immune to the financial shock of relegation but again some would feel it more than others. Both Leeds and Burnley have yo-yoed between the two leagues in recent years and would arguably be more ready for another fall but Wolves, West Ham and Nottingham Forest would be hit hard. In 2025, Wolves revenue was £172.3m of which broadcast revenue totalled £125.6m (73%).”
“Their wage to revenue ratio was almost 95%, placing the importance of that broadcast revenue further into context. One would hope that they have mandatory wage reduction clauses in contracts to enable them some room to move. The wages to revenue ratios are slightly more manageable for West Ham (76%) and Nottingham Forest (75.5%) but even then, the £60m that they will lose off the revenue line will place further strain on costs. As we can from these numbers, relegated Premier League clubs are desperate to return within the three-year parachute payment window so that they can regain access to the Premier League broadcast pot.”
