It was Vance Joy in his hit 2013 song ‘Riptide’ who said:
“I was scared of dentists and the dark. I was scared of pretty girls and starting conversations.”
I sympathise with such remarks. I mean, even the prospect of talking to pretty girls is enough to turn me into a nervous, nail-biting wreck of a man.
But whilst these things are scary, they do not come close to what I would regard as the greatest fear of them all – a snap general election.
It may seem, at first, to be a far fetched idea. Burnham will find himself in Number 10 in just a matter of weeks, armed with an ensemble of more than 400 MPs, all of whom view him as some type of messianic saviour. “Lisan al-Gaib!” the Labour backbenchers chant, as they cross their fingers in the hope that Andy Burnham will turn water to wine and rid them of the curse of Starmerism.
Indeed, it makes one question why any sane person would throw such an opportunity away, particularly given the fact that a snap election would result in a great number of Labour MPs losing their jobs. It is a difficult prospect to sell to backbenchers. ‘Thank you for electing me as leader of your party, I am now going to make a lot of you lose your jobs’ is perhaps not the best sales pitch one could make.
A number of Tory MPs recognise this too, and see the possibility as rather slim. “Chances are currently low” one individual texts me.
But despite such predictions and circumstances, I would wager that a snap election isn’t as ludicrous as some make it out to be. One has to remember that Burnham has no mandate to govern and no manifesto to be held accountable to (his stated positions are markedly different from Labour’s 2024 manifesto, for instance). He lacks any form of real political legitimacy beyond that which is granted to him by his fellow Labour MPs.
It is a weak position to be in, and he most definitely recognises this. A snap election which returns a Labour government would grant him the authority to lead – a reward which he may see as being worth the gamble. “I can see the appeal” one senior Tory told me.
On top of this, there is his personal brand, and the impact which that will have. The supposed ‘Burnham Bounce’ which will likely give Labour a temporary jump in the polls, perhaps up to something as high as 25 or 26 per cent. Numbers which may seem low, but which are incredibly significant in the multi-party system Britain now finds itself in.
But the reality is that when he finally gets into office, his popularity will only decrease – and Labour’s polling position will follow suit. A temporary bump could therefore be enough for Burnham to, as one MP put it to me, “pull the trigger” and call a snap election. Why continue further down a road that only worsens your chances of electoral success? It is better to go now and minimise the damage.
And that should worry us as Conservatives. A snap election does not play into the Tories’ long-term strategy. I will be honest – we as a party are not yet ready for an early election. As I have written on this site before, the Kemi strategy is to play the long game. To rebuild trust and credibility not through fireworks-style policy announcements, but through curating sensible and serious ideas. To prove to the electorate that the Tories are a serious party of government.
This is a perfectly reasonable, and indeed effective, strategy were the next election to be some time away, but a snap election renders such a strategy obsolete.
Yet, despite such pessimism on my part, Kemi Badenoch has welcomed a snap election, albeit on a specific condition, however. “If Andy Burnham is not able to fund the Defence Investment Plan” Badenoch said to GB News “then we should have a general election.”
It is not a particularly reassuring message to send to voters, it must be said. Conditional support for an election is hardly a rallying cry to the troops.
However, there are some in the party that would actively welcome an early election. “We have the most popular leader, and are the only party with a plan” one MP tells me. “Under the heat of a GE the charlatans would melt.”
This analysis is not without merit. Other parties are most definitely not ready for a General Election either, despite their utterances. Reform would likely fall victim to an ill-handled vetting process, Labour still lack a credible manifesto to put to the public, and the Liberal Democrats will continue to be the Liberal Democrats.
This unpredictability may provide some in the party with a sense of comfort. But I would contest that such a sense is grounded in naivety and false pretences. A snap election could see the dynamics of our Parliament change beyond recognition. A shift that could see the Conservatives relegated to third place – losing the coveted, constitutional title of ‘His Majesty’s Opposition.’
The stakes, then, could not be higher. This is not merely a question of winning or losing a handful of seats, but whether the Conservative Party can maintain its current constitutional authority.
And so yes, an early general election should worry us, but it should also motivate us to get our house in order and ready ourselves to do battle. To don our armour, and prepare accordingly. I have no doubt that preparations are underway, and that some type of doomsday plan exists if Burnham decides to go to the country.
But I do struggle to see how the Party will shift gears in such a short space of time. To go from a party which is playing the long game with fully costed and sensible policies, to one which needs to drum up an election-ready manifesto in the space of a few days.
It is a difficult ask, but if the party begins preparing now, then it will be ready to face the country come what may.
(UKR)
