Image by Matt Palmer.
The onset of some level of climate upheaval or widespread destruction of biomes and human lives, mild or severe, has essentially been forecast by the world’s leading climate scientist James Hansen, Earth Institute, Columbia University who pronounced the 2C upper temperature limit that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says cannot be exceeded “dead on arrival.” But frankly, “who cares” is an overriding issue that impedes doing anything constructive.
Only recently several publications took notice of Hansen’s most recent communique: The Guardian, February 4, 2025: Climate Change Target of 2C is ‘Dead’ Says Renowned Climate Scientist.
If the 2C target is dead on arrival, then the worldwide climate system is headed for a wild trip that’ll make the past two years look like a cakewalk. If history is a guide, paying heed to James Hansen’s warnings is advisable. For example, if the US Senate, decades ago, would have listened and acted upon Hansen’s 1988 warning, articles like this that spell out scientific facts about an uncompromising challenging climate system would be stupid and unnecessary. Back then, Hansen told the US Senate: “The greenhouse effect has been detected, and it is changing our climate now.”
Wow, talk about a zinger: “changing our climate” should have shaken and rattled the rafters of the Capitol building with demands by senators for immediate research into what could be done about such shocking news. But nothing happened, until now, with a climate system threatening everything capitalism stands for, like homeownership, as major home insurers either back off coverage/drop coverage in states like Florida and California, or they crank up rates so fast, so high to nosebleed levels that many current and prospective homeowners are priced out of the market. Homeowner’s Insurance Costs Soar, Barron’s d/d January 22, 2025.
Significantly, it’s no small deal when RE is clobbered by a ravaging climate system in the states of Florida and California, as Florida’s $1.58 trillion GDP is comparable to Spain and California’s $4 trillion GDP comparable to India. Combined, GDP of the two states ranks alongside the US, China, Germany, and Japan as one of the five largest in the world.
Climate change is rapidly becoming too costly for insurers and for homeowners. Assuming Dr. Hansen is right once again, homeownership will become a relic of the American Dream. If and when “2°C is dead,” meaning surpassing pre-industrial temperatures, the repercussions will be so ugly, so dreadfully corpselike, and impossible to describe with a clear conscience. And, besides, who really cares anyway?
For two years running, the most influential sources of US political power have been dropping out of the green movement by the bucketload. They just don’t care and neither does the general public. According to a Gallup poll, 54% of Americans do not think global warming poses a serious threat during their lifetimes. Just wondering: Does the 54% mostly come from the over 50s crowd?
The world’s leading climate scientist, James Hansen, similarly addressed the issue of complacency and lack of interest based upon the title of a recent report: James Hansen, Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed? Earth Institute, Columbia University, Feb. 3, 2025.
Greenhushing has become the newest approach to climate change by corporations. Recent financial headlines tell the tale: JPMorgan, State Street Quit Climate Group, BlackRock Steps Back (Reuters, Feb. 15, 2024) Major Asset Managers Drop Climate Activism (Competitive Enterprise Institute, February 2024) And this is before Trump turned lose his attack dogs on the EPA and dropped out of Paris ’15, an agreement by the nations of the world to take measures to suppress CO2 emissions (which act as a blanket holding heat) to try to hold down rising global temperatures. So far, it’s been a massive failure and is now destined for the dustbin.
What about 2°C by 2050
Never before in Earth’s history has the planet been confronted by such a powerful force as the human footprint, e.g., human-generated climate change is changing the face of the planet in one human lifetime. That’s difficult to comprehend in the context of a planet celebrating 4.543 billion years. The human era 2.5m/yrs is merely a speck of time. Humans are 0.0006% of earth-time.
Several respected scientific studies claim “business-as-usual’ will take global temps up to 2°C above pre-industrial by 2050, possibly 2040-45, resulting in one-foot of sea level rise. Every 1 foot of sea level swallows up 100 feet of shoreline for most coastlines. The consequences will drive the cost of home insurance to the moon. Furthermore, the climate change issue is not only increasing sea levels; it’s massive wildfires, monster hurricanes, expansive floods, and barn-burning droughts. All of these events are happening at extreme levels of human history.
As a result, homeownership will no longer be a crowning feature of capitalism and will lose its safety valve effect of stabilizing society. Begging the question: Is the big fossil fuel CO2 emissions profit center worth the loss of valuation of large portions of real estate, the world’s biggest asset class, with a projected value of $613.60 trillion in 2023?
According to an article in USA Today, Feb. 3, 2025: Climate Risk Will Take Trillion-Dollar Bite Out of America’s Real Estate, Report Finds. According to the referenced report, Property Prices in Peril, “Climate abandonment’ areas are where climate risks and insurance premiums are high enough that population is declining; risky growth areas are where perils are high and premiums are rising.” This is the direct result of anthropogenic (originating in human activity) climate change.
It’s threatening America’s number one asset class and the existence of capitalism as a viable socio-economic system, which is already questionable. Can the system survive the climate change that Dr. James Hansen warned the US Senate about 37 years ago that’s now morphing into a lengthy extension that’s much more ominous than his 1988 warning? Moreover, today’s administration is poking the bear by abandoning green policies just as the worst of climate change approaches full stride, which will likely define the 2030s (distant cousin to the 1930s).
Prospects for Heat Waves: “Mortality from extreme heat could surpass that of all infectious diseases combined, and rival that of cancer and heart disease.” (Source: Why Heat Waves of the Future May Be Even Deadlier Than Feared, The New York Times, October 25, 2024)
