The transparent purpose is to misportray this regional integration group as either Russian puppets or manipulated by Russia.
By Andrew Korybko
Radio France International (RFI) recently drew attention to allegedly leaked files from a Russian analytical group, Africa Politology, that have formed the core of an investigative series by their media affiliates. Provided that the leaks are real, and they haven’t been independently confirmed, then they allege that Russian experts have been engaged in a soft power campaign centered on the Sahelian Alliance (AES per its French acronym) between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger but also extending into neighboring states.
According to RFI, the goal was to promote policies and narratives aligned with Russian interests, which respectively include the formation of the AES itself and exposing Western plots in the region. Some of the Russian experts also purportedly boasted about their work being responsible for various developments of significance. To its credit, RFI cited an expert at the end of their report who questioned these claims, even going as far as to criticize the group’s modus operandi as fundamentally flawed.
Nevertheless, even though that part was intended to uphold the impression of editorial fairness, it’s clear that this story and related ones published by them represent France’s latest effort to delegitimate the AES. The transparent purpose is to misportray this regional integration group as either Russian puppets or manipulated by Russia. This weaponized information warfare narrative ipso facto legitimizes opposition, including its violent manifestation by foreign-backed terrorists, against them.
It was warned in February that “The US Might Make The Sahelian Alliance An Offer That It Can’t Refuse” during the then-upcoming trip of US’ top diplomat for Africa to Bamako, the capital of what’s considered to be the AES’ leader, Mali. Per the analysis, they might be told “to let the US replace or at least ‘balance’ Russia’s role as their top security partner under implied pain of US-backed Nigerian military pressure on anti-terrorist pretexts, French-backed terrorist advances, and/or US anti-terrorist strikes.”
Judging by the alleged Russian files that later leaked, the AES’ Malian leader held firm in the face of whatever the US demanded of it, hence the intensification of the West’s information warfare against the bloc for the purpose of legitimizing all opposition to it on “national liberation” pretexts. The US’ French ally that shares its strategic interests in the region was seemingly tasked with taking the lead in this respect so that they can implement a “good cop, bad cop” dynamic as kinetic pressure intensifies.
While the latest effort to delegitimize the AES will fail, this doesn’t mean that the West’s Hybrid War on it will be called off, including that which Ukraine is waging against the bloc together with the US and France. More than likely, this latest information warfare campaign is meant to precondition some of the local public and especially the global one into expecting this, which could be timed to coincide with any Russian setbacks in the special operation or new regional crises that limit Russia’s ability to aid the AES.
Looking forward, everything will likely soon get worse for the AES, and what’s happening right now could be considered the calm before the storm. It can only be speculated what the US, France, and Ukraine are cooking, but it’s likely aimed at throwing the entire region back into turmoil after it finally began to relatively (key qualifier) stabilize since the AES’ formation. Whether they’ll succeed remains to be seen, but it’ll be a trial by fire for the AES, and their victory would inspire more African resistance to the West.
