Photograph Source: Russian Presidential Executive Office – CC BY 4.0
Russian President Vladimir Putin is once again playing a calculated game with the proposed ceasefire deal. Putin’s response has been predictably shrewd. He has not outright rejected the proposal, but his conditions—a Ukrainian renunciation of NATO ambitions and territorial concessions—make any deal rather tricky.
However, one thing is certain. If a ceasefire does materialize, it will not be on terms favorable to Kyiv. Rather, it will serve as a tool for Putin to secure long-term strategic advantages.
The Russian military has suffered significant losses, and a month-long pause could allow the Kremlin to replenish supplies, redeploy troops, and reinforce occupied territories. A ceasefire could serve as a tactical breather rather than a genuine step toward peace. Putin understands that Western support for Ukraine is not infinite. By agreeing to a temporary cessation of hostilities, he can test the resolve of Kyiv’s backers and potentially create fissures in the coalition supporting Ukraine. European nations, fatigued by war and economic strain, may be more inclined to push Ukraine into concessions after a period of reduced conflict.
Russia can also use the ceasefire as a diplomatic weapon. By signaling a willingness to engage in talks while simultaneously setting impossible conditions, Putin could paint himself as the reasonable actor while framing Ukraine and the West as obstructing peace. This would play well in the Global South, where Moscow has already made inroads through energy and security partnerships.
Finally, with Trump unlikely to unconditionally support Ukraine, Putin sees an opportunity to force Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky into a corner. Trump’s approach to Ukraine has been transactional at best. Reports suggest that Trump’s team has been squeezing Zelensky on a potential rare mineral deal, a clear indication that Kyiv cannot expect unwavering support from Washington. The recent pause in military support and intelligence-sharing was also a sign of U.S. fickleness. Without strong American backing, Zelensky may face increasing pressure to make painful compromises.
Although Trump has voiced support for a ceasefire, his dealings with Putin suggest that he is far less interested in extracting serious concessions from Moscow than he is in pressuring Ukraine. During his recent meeting with Zelensky, Trump’s tone was more demanding than supportive. At the same time, Putin has been careful not to alienate Trump.
This puts Zelensky in a precarious position. Ukraine could be forced to negotiate from a weaker stance, particularly on territorial issues. Despite Ukraine’s refusal to formally cede land, a de facto recognition of Russian control over certain regions could become an unavoidable reality. Furthermore, the rare mineral deal that Trump’s allies are pushing has broader implications. If the United States sees strategic economic benefit in working with Ukraine’s mineral sector, but only under certain conditions, then Zelensky’s negotiating power in any ceasefire deal could be further eroded. Putin, always adept at reading geopolitical currents, will see this as an opening to demand even more concessions.
Putin’s long-term vision remains unchanged: he seeks to weaken Ukraine as a sovereign state, drive a wedge between Western allies, and solidify Russia’s geopolitical position. If Moscow ultimately backs a ceasefire deal, it won’t be out of a genuine interest in genuine peace but because it serves Russian interests. A ceasefire with Russian forces still in control of occupied areas will effectively cement Moscow’s hold on those territories, making it harder for Ukraine to reclaim them diplomatically or militarily in the future. The longer the conflict drags on, the more divided the West could become and the less support Ukraine can expect from its allies. If the ceasefire fails due to Russia’s demands, Putin can blame the West for refusing to make peace. This is particularly useful for bolstering Russian narratives internationally, particularly among nations that are ambivalent about the conflict. And if Trump continues to distance himself from Ukraine, other global powers such as China and India may deepen their economic and strategic ties with Russia, further insulating Moscow from Western pressure and sanctions.
The UK’s Kier Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron, and other Western leaders are pushing for a durable peace. Putin’s track record, however, suggests that he is merely buying time for his next move while looking for ways to exploit any fractures in Western resolve. He is playing the long game. The real question is whether the West is prepared to counter him with equal determination over the long term, or whether Ukraine will be left to fend for itself in the face of Russian pressure and shifting U.S. priorities.
This first appeared on FPIF.
