Forecaster who has predicted almost every election since 1984, says Kamala Harris will likely win the election in November.
Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 and Biden in 2020, says his forecasts point to a Harris win.
Lichtman uses ’13 keys’ to make his predictions:
The “keys” are:
– party mandate
– contest
– incumbency
– third party
– short-term economy
– long-term economy
– policy change
– social unrest
– scandal
– foreign/military failure
– foreign/military success
– incumbent charisma
– challenger charisma
As of now, Harris has 6 keys and Trump only has 3.
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Lichtman still has 4 keys to hand out but Harris is already at 6 meaning, in his own words, “a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose.”
Lichtman is waiting until the DNC to make his final prediction.
Watch the video of his prediction below
NEW: Forecaster who has predicted almost every election since 1984, says Kamala Harris will likely win the election in November.
Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 & Biden in 2020, says his forecasts point to a Harris win.
Lichtman uses ’13 keys’ to… pic.twitter.com/US6LMgvWlH
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) July 29, 2024
