The Mortgage Bankers Association’s recent report appears to show that immigration contributes to an increase in home prices.
The June report notes that the national housing shortage ranges from “1.5 million to 7.3 million units,” and argues that demographic changes due to immigration policy will weaken housing demands.
“Looking ahead, demographic trends are weakening the foundations of housing demand,” the report states. “Household formation is expected to slow over the next decade due to population aging, low fertility rates, smaller younger adult cohorts and reduced immigration.”
“Tighter immigration policy has been one of the major factors leading to downward revisions of population growth and household formation in the immediate years ahead. Over the medium to longer-term, the impact of lower fertility rates will also have significant impact,” Mike Fratanoni, Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
“Slower housing demand growth could have important implications for the mortgage industry, including effects on mortgage origination volumes, borrow equity accumulation and credit performance,” Fratanoni added.
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s requests for comment.
Homebuilders have responded to the years of strong demand in the South and Western U.S., especially multifamily housing, the association said.
“Over the past decades, young adult cohorts were augmented thought international migration, but this unlikely to be the case given the abrupt changes in immigration policy in 2025,” the report states. “Recent estimates suggest that net immigration may be negative for at least the next few years.”
“These trends carry meaningful implications for homeowners and the mortgage industry, including risks to origination volumes, borrower equity and credit performance,” the report continues. “If construction remains elevated, supply growth could outpace demand growth, pushing home prices lower.”
Almost 30% of Haitian migrants living in the U.S. on temporary visas own homes, the DCNF reported Wednesday. This is slightly higher than the percentage of Generation Z Americans who are homeowners.
(DCNF)
