By Inyali Peter, PhD
With Prof. Sandy Onor obtaining the PDP presidential nomination form ahead of the 2027 elections, it has become evident that earlier speculations about a possible senatorial ambition may have been misplaced. However, his presidential race may not necessarily be driven by a determination to contest the presidency to the end, but rather as part of a carefully mapped out political calculation tied to the unfolding national power dynamics ahead of 2027 and beyond.
Don’t get it twisted. Prof. Onor will eventually emerge as the PDP’s presidential candidate and later step down for President Bola Tinubu through a strategic endorsement arrangement that’ll shake the politics of the country. This will position him for a prominent appointment within the next administration that’ll greatly strengthen his political standing ahead of the 2031 succession equation.
Unlike in 2023, this arrangement and collaboration would likely place him in a stronger negotiating position at the national level and make it difficult for the Cross River APC to politically challenge his appointment. The appointment will be a means to his ultimate ambition of succeeding Governor Bassey Otu in 2031.
For the APC in Cross River, the challenge to counter these moves goes beyond winning elections in 2027. The bigger issue is building a sustainable political structure capable of protecting the party’s long-term future beyond the current administration. That is why the selection of National Assembly candidates in 2027 will be critical. Any costly miscalculation could weaken the party’s transition plans and create openings for rival political forces already positioning themselves for 2031.
At the moment, Prof. Onor and the Minister of the FCT, Nyesom Wike appear to be thinking several steps ahead in the politics of succession and power consolidation in 2031. The APC’s strongest safeguard, therefore, would be the emergence of loyal, grassroots-driven National Assembly members with proven electoral value, political relevance, and the capacity to sustain the party’s influence after the current administration. In simple terms, the party must produce lawmakers who are both loyal and capable of effective performance.
The APC must also be careful not to ignore zoning arrangements and established power rotation understandings in the selection of candidates ahead of 2027. The truth is that resistance to certain party and government decisions may intensify immediately after the 2027 general elections. In fact, the signs may begin to show as early as the 2027 local government elections. The apparent absolute loyalty currently enjoyed by Governor Bassey Otu from political actors seeking patronage and party tickets may not last beyond the next election cycle.
Wike and Onor are not merely playing politics for the present; they appear to have already concluded greater aspects of their 2031 political calculations. Nobody should be deceived into believing that President Tinubu will abandon Wike after 2027 in the manner many believe happened to Nasir El-Rufai. Wike is likely to remain highly relevant and influential within the national political structure.
Beyond his current position, Wike is strategically building a political network that could retain substantial bargaining power after the 2027 elections. His faction within the PDP is also expected to secure a number of National Assembly seats and possibly control one or two states, further strengthening his influence ahead of the 2031 political realignments.
You may choose to dismiss these projections today, but when the realignments eventually begin to unfold, many will look back and realise that the signs were already visible.
