Washington, D.C. – With the 2024 US presidential election just underway, early voting numbers are causing both concern and optimism within Democratic circles. Jim Messina, former campaign manager for President Barack Obama in 2012, described the current turnout as “a little scary” for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
Messina shared his observations during an interview on Sunday with MSNBC’s Jen Psaki, a former White House spokeswoman.
Messina noted that early voting patterns have diverged sharply from 2020, with an uptick in early Republican turnout this time.
“Republicans did not do what they did last time,” he explained, referring to Donald Trump’s previous advice to his supporters to avoid early voting. This year, however, Republicans are actively casting early ballots, potentially giving them an edge in early voting numbers, especially in key battleground states.
The figures are concerning enough to have prompted calls of concern from Democratic insiders, Messina said, underscoring the significance of the early Republican turnout.
However, he emphasized that there are still encouraging signs for Harris’ campaign, especially among two critical voting blocs. “Women make up more than half of early voters, and in the past ten days, young voters in battleground states are turning out in what looks to be historic numbers,” Messina stated.
NBC’s early voting data shows that 76.2 million ballots, including mail-in and in-person early votes, have already been cast nationwide.
Among these voters, 41% identify as Democrats and 39% as Republicans, while the remaining 20% have not disclosed party affiliation.
Despite the close split, Republicans have outpaced Democrats in early voting in four of seven key swing states, with the largest margin seen in Arizona, where Republicans hold a 42% to 33% lead.
Early data indicates that 53% of voters are female and 20% are between the ages of 18 and 39, two demographics expected to favour Harris. These trends could bolster her campaign in critical areas, despite concerns over the high Republican turnout.
With Election Day set for Tuesday, both parties are focused on mobilizing remaining voters in a race that appears set to go down to the wire.