Russia would remove what the interim Syrian authorities consider to be a “problem” from their hands, it could more quickly settle its new regions, and these atrocities would no longer overshadow their ongoing base talks.
The latest sectarian violence in Syria killed almost 1,000 members of the Alawite minority at the minimum, with many of them still sheltering in place or hiding somewhere outside of their homes due to their fear of being murdered like their co-religionists just if they stepped into the street. RT published a detailed report about what one of the survivors described as this “safari hunting Alawites”, while the UN confirmed that “entire families, including women and children, were killed” over the past week.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that around 9,000 Syrians – presumably mostly Alawites – sought shelter at her country’s Khmeimim airbase to escape the violence that she very strongly condemned. On that topic, Reuters cited two sources who were briefed on last week’s closed-door UNSC meeting on Syria to exclusively report that Russian Permanent Representative Vasily Nebenzia “lambasted” what happened by comparing it to the Rwandan Genocide.
According to them, he also warned that “the Iraq scenario” could repeat itself in Syria after its interim authorities dissolved the army and imposed massive cuts on the public workforce, hinting that disaffected elements might eventually take up arms against the new government. Another of his reported criticisms concerned the “corrupt foundation” that’s being established in Syria and his concerns about the “destructive role” that foreign “terrorist” fighters are playing there nowadays.
Given the international community’s inability to muster a meaningful response, whether coercing the interim authorities into stopping these sectarian killings via some form of pressure or intervening under the “Responsibility to Protect” pretext, Russia should consider accepting Syria’s Alawites as refugees. The ideal scenario would of course be for them to remain in their homeland without fear of being killed on the basis of their religious beliefs but that no longer appears to be a realistic possibility.
Even after the violence ends, many members of this community might understandably feel uncomfortable remaining in their hometowns, but they’ll struggle to find a way to leave. It’s very difficult for Syrians to legally migrate, that country’s Alawites wouldn’t feel safe fleeing illegally to Turkiye (whose government supports those who just massacred their co-religionists despite hosting its own Alawite minority), and Europe is cracking down on illegal immigration. This leaves Russia as their only hope.
The lesser evil between ethnic cleansing and genocide, if one is forced by circumstances into choosing, is obviously the first provided that the targeted group is able to safely leave abroad. Syria’s interim authorities obviously don’t want the Alawites to remain in their country while Russia has in recent years sought to court responsible immigrants to replace its declining population. Moreover, Russia wants to keep its air and naval bases, while Syria now wants to rely on Russia to balance dependence on Turkiye.
This convergence of demographic-strategic interests can form the basis of a deal between Syria and Russia whereby the interim authorities allow those Alawites who want to leave to go to Russia, which would then provide them with refugee status and associated support. Russia would remove what the interim Syrian authorities consider to be a “problem” from their hands, it could more quickly settle its new regions, and their ongoing base talks would no longer be overshadowed by these atrocities.
