Canada and Ireland: Adapting to a New Era of Global Multipolarity

Since the Cold War’s end, Canada and Ireland have navigated a shifting geopolitical landscape increasingly defined by multipolarity, a retreating Pax Americana, and the erosion of the rules-based international order. Both nations, historically adept at leveraging diplomacy to amplify their influence, now face the challenge of adapting their grand strategies to these emerging realities. However, their respective failures to recalibrate their priorities threaten not only their national interests but also the security frameworks of the North Atlantic and Europe.

Canada: The Illusion of Middle Power Status

Canada’s enduring self-perception as a “middle power” with global influence is a legacy of its post-World War II contributions to diplomacy and peacekeeping. Yet, this identity no longer aligns with contemporary global dynamics. While Canada continues to champion global causes such as climate change and human rights, its neglect of hard power capabilities undermines its regional responsibilities.

Defence Shortcomings

Canada’s defence spending remains below NATO’s recommended benchmark of 2% of GDP, leaving its military underfunded and underprepared. Despite its Arctic sovereignty being increasingly contested by Russia and China, Canada has failed to make meaningful investments in the region. Plans to acquire critical assets like submarines and icebreakers are mired in a dysfunctional procurement process, leaving vast Arctic territories vulnerable.

Policy Missteps

Ottawa’s global ambitions often come at the expense of securing its immediate neighbourhood. The Trudeau government’s lofty rhetoric on international issues distracts from pressing regional concerns in the Arctic, North Atlantic, and North Pacific. To adapt, Canada must prioritise defence investments, develop robust Arctic infrastructure, and establish a permanent military presence in the region.

Ireland: Neutrality in an Era of Insecurity

Ireland’s strategic modesty, rooted in its neutrality, has left it ill-equipped for the demands of modern European security. While this policy has historically shielded Ireland from entanglements, it is increasingly inadequate in a multipolar world characterised by hybrid threats and great power competition.

Defence Vulnerabilities

Ireland’s defence spending, among the lowest in Europe, reflects its limited military capacity. The country struggles to patrol its airspace and maritime zones, exposing critical vulnerabilities. The 2021 cyberattack on Ireland’s health service underscored the inadequacy of its cybersecurity measures. Despite its EU membership, Ireland resists deeper integration into European defence initiatives, relying instead on larger nations for protection.

Rethinking Neutrality

Ireland must modernise its defence capabilities and engage more actively in regional security. Investments in naval forces and maritime patrol systems are crucial for protecting its waters and contributing to North Atlantic security. While joining NATO may not be necessary, Ireland must abandon its over-reliance on neutrality and strengthen its role within the EU security framework.

Shared Implications for Regional Security

The inability of Canada and Ireland to address their strategic shortcomings weakens the security architectures of the North Atlantic and Europe. Canada’s inaction in the Arctic and North Atlantic compromises NATO’s collective defence, while Ireland’s minimal contributions strain efforts to bolster European security. These gaps present opportunities for adversaries to exploit, threatening stability in regions critical to Western interests.

A Call for Strategic Reassessment

Both nations possess the resources and geopolitical positioning to play more significant roles. Canada’s proximity to the United States and strategic location in the Arctic make it a linchpin for North American security. Ireland, as a gateway to Europe, has the potential to be a critical player in North Atlantic maritime security. Realising these potentials requires abandoning outdated narratives and making difficult but necessary investments.

• For Canada: A shift from globalist ambitions to regional focus is imperative. Strengthening Arctic sovereignty, meeting NATO commitments, and enhancing military readiness are critical steps.
• For Ireland: A reassessment of neutrality is essential. By modernising its defence capabilities and engaging more robustly in European security, Ireland can ensure its sovereignty and contribute to regional stability.

Conclusion

The era of multipolarity demands bold leadership and adaptability. For Canada and Ireland, the choice is clear: recalibrate their grand strategies or risk drifting into irrelevance. Sovereignty, security, and regional stability depend on their willingness to confront uncomfortable realities and prioritise meaningful action. The world cannot afford their inaction.