By Joe Udo
LAGOS (CONVERSEER) – A joint report by the African Union and the African Development Bank has raised concerns over the growing economic risks the ongoing Middle East conflict poses to African countries.
The report warns that the war could significantly increase the cost of living across the continent while slowing economic growth, as Africa maintains strong trade ties with the Middle East. The region accounts for 15.8 per cent of Africa’s imports and 10.9 per cent of its exports, making it a critical economic partner.
According to the report, the conflict has already triggered a trade shock and could escalate into a full-scale cost-of-living crisis. It cited rising fuel and food prices, higher shipping and insurance costs, mounting exchange rate pressures, and tightening fiscal conditions as immediate risks facing African economies.
Economic projections indicate that if the conflict persists beyond six months, Africa’s GDP growth could decline by 0.2 percentage points in 2026. The report noted that prolonged disruption to shipping routes, energy supply, and fertiliser distribution would further deepen economic vulnerabilities across the continent.
Particular concern was raised over reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries from the Gulf, which are expected to affect fertiliser production during the critical planting season leading up to May. This could constrain agricultural output and worsen food security challenges in several countries.
Currency depreciation has already been recorded in 29 African nations, increasing the cost of servicing external debts, making imports more expensive, and placing additional strain on foreign exchange reserves.
Despite the broader risks, the report highlighted that some countries could experience limited short-term gains. Nigeria may benefit from increased oil exports, while Mozambique could see gains from LNG demand. Similarly, the rerouting of global shipping away from conflict zones towards the Cape of Good Hope is expected to boost port activity in Southern African countries, while Kenya is positioning itself as a regional logistics hub. Ethiopian Airlines was also identified as playing a key role in maintaining connectivity, acting as an emergency air bridge linking Africa with Asia and Europe.
However, the report stressed that such gains would be uneven and insufficient to offset the wider economic pressures. Inflation, strained public finances, and worsening food insecurity are expected to dominate the continent’s economic outlook if the conflict continues.
It further warned that the crisis could drive up the cost of humanitarian aid while diverting international donor funding away from Africa to other global priorities, compounding existing development challenges.
