Nigeria’s struggling revenue profile is set for a rise as Brent crude yesterday, rose above $100 a barrel for the first time in nearly two months, hitting $100.69 over escalating attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea deepen concerns that the Middle East supply crisis is spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Nigeria’s 2026 federal budget is anchored on an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and a daily crude oil production target of 1.84 million barrels per day.
The latest rise in crude oil price represents a raise of $36.42 per barrel above the projected oil price benchmark of $64.85.
As of mid-morning Thursday, front-month Brent for September delivery was trading at $100.69 a barrel, up more than seven per cent on the day after touching an intraday high of $101.01. WTI was also sharply higher, with the entire Brent forward curve moving higher as traders priced in a greater risk of prolonged supply disruptions.
The latest leg higher follows Houthi claims that the group struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after declaring a naval blockade of Saudi exports earlier this week. Several vessels have reportedly altered course or delayed transits through the chokepoint, threatening the export route. Saudi Arabia has relied on to bypass disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The move marks another escalation for a market that had spent weeks betting geopolitical risk would ease. Brent has now climbed roughly 20 per cent in about two weeks as repeated attacks on commercial shipping, renewed fighting involving Iran, and mounting export disruptions have steadily erased expectations of a quick return to normal oil flows.
The rally is no longer being driven solely by fears surrounding Hormuz. Kazakhstan has begun cutting oil production after drone attacks shut down tanker loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on the Black Sea. Indian state refiners have suspended Iraqi crude loadings because of shipping risks through Hormuz. Russian fuel exports remain constrained after months of Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries.
The physical market is tightening alongside futures. Governments around the world have already drawn down hundreds of millions of barrels from strategic reserves since the Middle East conflict began, commercial inventories have fallen sharply, and China has reduced imports by drawing on stockpiles accumulated before the war. Those buffers are steadily disappearing.
Brent’s return to triple digits puts the market back in territory many analysts believed had been avoided after the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding briefly reopened hopes that Middle East exports would normalize. Those expectations have unraveled quickly as the conflict has expanded from Hormuz to the Red Sea, placing two of the world’s most important oil shipping routes under simultaneous threat.
(The Sun)