White British People Will be a Minority in 40 Years, Report Predicts
Shifting ethnic dynamic of the UK driven by immigration predicted to cause dramatic changes
SAM ASHWORTH-HAYES, CHARLES HYMAS
White British people will become a minority in the UK population within the next 40 years, a report has predicted.
An analysis of migration, birth and death rates up to the end of the 21st century predicts that white British people will decline from their current position as 73% of the population to 57% by 2050 before slipping into a minority by 2063.
The research, by Prof Matt Goodwin of Buckingham University, suggests that by the end of the century, the white British share of the population – defined as people who do not have an immigrant parent – could have fallen to around a third (33.7%).
It projects a big rise in the proportion of the UK population comprising foreign-born and second-generation immigrants, from below 20% to 33.5% within the next 25 years.
By 2100, it predicts six in 10 people in the UK will either not have been born in the UK, or will have at least one immigrant parent.
The Muslim population, which currently stands at 7%, is estimated to increase to more than one in 10 (11.2%) within the next 25 years and account for one in five (19.2%) of all people in the UK by the end of the century.
Prof Goodwin, an honorary professor at Kent University, said the research, based on Office for National Statistics (ONS) and census data, raised “profound questions about the capacity of the UK state to both absorb and manage this scale of demographic change”.
In his report, he said the findings were certain to spark a “considerable degree of anxiety, concern and political opposition” among many voters who favoured lowering immigration and slowing the pace of change in order to maintain “the symbols, traditions, culture and ways of life of the traditional majority group”.
Prof Goodwin said: “Their concerns will need to be recognised, respected and addressed if the UK is to avoid considerable political turbulence and polarisation in the years and decades ahead.”
His report follows a period of unprecedented legal and illegal migration – hitting a record high of 906,000 under the Tories in 2023 – and subsequent crackdowns, including Labour’s white paper this month proposing restrictions on the rights of migrants to live, work and study in the UK.
He said: “By the end of the current century, most of the people on these islands will not be able to trace their roots in this country back more than one or two generations.
“By the year 2100, based on our projections, six in 10 people in the UK will not have been born in the UK or born to two UK-born parents.
“This raises enormous questions about the capacity of our country and leaders to unify people around a shared sense of identity, values, ways of life, and culture, and avoid the very real risk of us becoming what Sir Keir Starmer referred to in May as ‘an island of strangers’.”
In 2022, the census revealed London and Birmingham had become minority white British.
More research confirming the Great Replacement isn’t a conspiracy theory, just a demographic fact. Yet the borders remains open.
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(UKR)