With the clock ticking for clubs embroiled in the Premier League’s battle for survival, football finance expert and lecturer at Sheffield Hallam University, Dr Dan Plumley, has warned that West Ham United could face a severe immediate financial shock if relegated.
Following West Ham’s 1-0 defeat to Arsenal last night, which included a controversial VAR decision against them, their relegation concerns have intensified at a crucial stage of the season.
Analysing West Ham’s exposure to relegation risk exclusively for Grosvenor Casino, Plumley highlighted the scale of the financial drop linked to Premier League broadcast revenue.
Dan Plumley: “The loss of broadcasting revenue from the Premier League could cost clubs like West Ham upwards of £60m+ immediately, with parachute payments only partially softening the impact over three years.”
Plumley expanded on how West Ham compare to other clubs under threat, particularly in relation to their reliance on broadcast income and wage structure.
Dan Plumley: “The other clubs in the bottom six are not immune to the financial shock of relegation but again some would feel it more than others. Both Leeds and Burnley have yo-yoed between the two leagues in recent years and would arguably be more ready for another fall but Wolves, West Ham and Nottingham Forest would be hit hard. In 2025, Wolves revenue was £172.3m of which broadcast revenue totalled £125.6m (73%).”
Dan Plumley: “Their wage to revenue ratio was almost 95%, placing the importance of that broadcast revenue further into context. One would hope that they have mandatory wage reduction clauses in contracts to enable them some room to move. The wages to revenue ratios are slightly more manageable for West Ham (76%) and Nottingham Forest (75.5%) but even then, the £60m that they will lose off the revenue line will place further strain on costs. As we can from these numbers, relegated Premier League clubs are desperate to return within the three-year parachute payment window so that they can regain access to the Premier League broadcast pot.”
Plumley also outlined how financial regulations could force difficult decisions if relegation were to materialise.
Dan Plumley: “PSR (in the Premier League) states that clubs are not allowed to lose more than £105m limit over the 3-year monitoring period (after excluding deductions for “healthy” expenditure), though the threshold is lower for clubs that have competed in the Championship in the season prior to promotion.”
Dan Plumley: “In the Championship itself, the allowable loss figure is £39m over three years but only £5m of this per year can be ‘true’ loss with the remaining £8m covered by secure funding (effectively an owner footing the bill).”
“It is hard to imagine James Maddison or Jarrod Bowen, as two examples, being happy playing Championship football. It is also not realistic to try and set a target in terms of amount of money generated through player sales as the reality is the total amount is never paid up front anyway and plenty of clubs owe other clubs in respect of outstanding transfer fees. It is the wage savings that become the greatest gain for a football club when trying to manage cost.”
